Financial markets frequently anticipate a V-shaped recovery, believing that once a truce is declared and the blockade ends, the geopolitical risk surcharge will vanish immediately and push Brent crude down to a $70 base within days. The recent 10% price drop on news of a five-day strike postponement perfectly illustrates this financial hopefulness. However, as a petroleum engineer, I can state that while financial markets operate at lightning speed, physical molecules travel through a system characterized by resistance, deterioration, and fluid friction.
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